Efficiency Reigns Superior

In search of the most efficient EV

Electric vehicle production is scaling rapidly and in order to keep affordability at the forefront manufacturers should seek vehicle efficiency as a top priority.  This starts with targeting the most expensive portion of the electric vehicle, the battery pack.  The battery pack can be roughly 50% of the total cost of production of an electric vehicle, so there is a strong effort on reducing the size and improving the energy density.  As of this writing, Benchmark Minerals Intelligence released projected 2022 battery pricing, and is expecting an increase for the first time since the 1990s.

This break higher against Moore’s Law shows that in a rising raw material price environment EV manufacturers will have to adapt.  Maximizing electric vehicle efficiency is a clear strategy for determining whether a particular design will have staying power and longevity in the EV market where efficiency is shown in the gravimetric and volumetric cell to pack ratios.  These metrics along with other various performance statistics are laid out in the supplementary portion of the thermally modulated LFP batteries paper that I highlighted in the beginning of the month. 

Let’s break down five of the most popular electric vehicles, and compare some of the most important properties. The head to head matchup between Tesla, Nissan, Nio, Hyundai, and BYD begins. 

The particular brand, model, and year are listed in the table below along with battery size, cost, and gravimetric and volumetric (GCTP/VCTP) cell to pack ratios.

The statistics show significantly higher cell to pack efficiency ratios for the BYD Han model. This is specific to the thermally modulated LFP battery pack that is entering the market in mass.  Traditional battery module and pack design cannot achieve the efficiencies of the LFP blade battery pack.  

The blade battery does not have the cooling needs of traditional pouch, cylindrical, and prismatic high nickel batteries.  It is also able to operate at higher temperatures, which enables faster ion transport, charging rates, and reduced resistance.  

What is most interesting is that the cost efficiency is greater than that of the 2017 Tesla Model 3 LR.  With recent rumors from Tesla that they could be buying LFP batteries from BYD surfacing we can further speculate significant improvements in the efficiencies of future Tesla vehicles.  

Tesla has most likely made improvements in their design since 2017 that could result in a lower cost/kWh.  It does appear that BYD will be going head to head against Tesla with Nexport managing director Luke Todd suggesting that Han will be priced competitively.

The Push Toward Cell to Pack

It seems clear that in a rising raw material price environment OEMs and electric vehicle manufacturers will need to seek maximum efficiency to maintain retail prices.  We have already seen an announcement from Tesla stating that they will increase the price of their vehicles by ~5%, and we should not be surprised if other manufacturers make similar moves.  The only way to mitigate the pricing pressures is to continue to improve battery efficiency.

The cell-to-pack technologies that are spearheaded by both CATL and BYD enable efficiencies that are unachievable with traditional EV architectures. The LFP battery expertise will need to spread toward Europe and the United States, and I find it difficult for that whole supply chain and manufacturing to be built out in the near future.  A very recent announcement by Hyundai suggests they will use CATL’s CTP technology for prismatic cells in future vehicles.  The question is who’s next?

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References:

1. Supplementary Paper including all vehicle models