Longer Electric Vehicle Range is not the Answer
Why 400+ miles is not needed
Electric vehicles are gaining more acceptance in markets throughout the world. Once seen as a luxury item to the upper echelon of people, costs have reduced to more affordable levels for the middle class. But one of the common concerns amongst drivers is electric vehicle range. Some current gasoline powered vehicle owners feel more confident in the distance a full tank of gas will give them. EV manufacturers have struggled to breakthrough with a huge portion of customers mainly because people are concerned about their battery running out of energy. What kind of range is needed?
The 2008 Tesla Roadster launched with a 53kWh battery pack and a range of 244 mi (393 km) listed for a price of $112,000. As years progressed more manufacturers continued research and development efforts focusing on battery longevity to increase the maximum range. In 2012, the Tesla Model S launched with a range of 294 miles and the Model 3 followed in 2017 with a range of 310 miles. Updates to the battery and battery management system have improved the range to >350 miles. In fact, the most recent software update claims a model S range of 402 miles as reported by multiple news outlets in mid-June. One of the goals of EV producers is to match the distance traveled of a typical internal combustion engine sedan. This is a target that most auto industry experts feel is needed to convince the buyer to go electric. The average sedan can hold 16 gallons (60.6L) of gasoline, and at an average fuel economy of 25 mpg this would equate to 400 miles of range.
The latest update from Tesla claims that they have now achieved distance parity of an internal combustion sedan. The revolution is here.
But how many miles of EV range do you really need? The average roundtrip commute for a US citizen is 32 miles per a report from itstillruns.com. A common complaint from non-EV drivers is that there is a lack of charging stations or that it takes too long to fully charge. Distance to charging stations is decreasing as more and more are being built. Battery chemistry and battery management systems are also improving to reduce the charging times further.
But contrary to gasoline powered vehicles, EV owners have the option to charge their vehicle at home. Over 80% of EV owners charge at home which limits the need to use local charging stations. There is not a huge reliance on the charging network, but policy makers and manufacturers see the shift in demand happening. Many manufacturers have partnered with utility/energy companies to help build out their network. When the density of stations matches that of today’s gasoline stations, will you really need a 400 mile range?
My guess is no. Currently, there is quite the surplus of gasoline pumps compared to EV charging stations. But in 2018, Cleantechnica wrote a report stating that the current ratio of automobiles to gasoline pumps is significantly higher than EVs to charging stations.
Gasoline Pumps and Electric Charging Stations
The napkin math calculations are rather broad, but the author calculates that the current auto to gasoline pump ratio is 225, while EV/charging stations is 16. According to EVadoption we estimate that electric vehicles account for 2% of the US automobile market. With an estimated 800,000 electric vehicles on the road (March 2018) we can estimate that there are 50,000 charging stations across the US. Yes, these charging stations are more than likely concentrated in suburban/urban areas, so in order to capture more market share the network will need to be built out. Have a look at Tesla’s plans. Currently there 1,971 Supercharger stations with 17,467 Superchargers as of my writing.
Their ambitious goals of connecting all of the United States is within reach, and I am not even including the networks of smaller companies such as ChargePoint, Blink or Shell.
As the industry continues to grow and build out, is it even necessary to have a range of 400+ miles? Tesla’s most recent lithium iron phosphate news may suggest a shift. I believe smaller Li-ion batteries will be the future, and that affordability is coming to all.