State of Batteries - 2020
The Charged 2020s are here.
Let’s cool off from the technical discussion and recap a wild and exciting year for the battery industry. We will take a dive into a presentation from battery experts courtesy of batterybrunch.org.
In the early part of the year, life was normal, and citizens were driving to work five days a week to their jobs. Little did we know, but just a few months into the year the coronavirus (Covid-19) rapidly spread throughout the world. Business and commerce ground to a halt as C-suite executives grappled to determine how they would deal with the crisis. It required the governments across the world to step in and provide fiscal stimulus and relief to billions of citizens. Nearly one year later we look back and realize that businesses adapted, and in some cases grew.
One of those businesses was lithium ion batteries. Consumers rely on their electronics, and electronics rely on the batteries that power them.
2020 in a Nutshell
Even amongst a pandemic we saw the emergence of lithium ion batteries. Commercial battery companies supply Li-ion batteries powering laptops, phones, electric vehicles, and other electronics, but in 2020 we witnessed the emergence of the start-ups. A lot of these companies either have niche technology or are focusing on a particular sector of the market. They are finally making themselves public as the technology and manufacturing capabilities have matured fueling confidence that they can address the demand for electric cars, buses, trucks, drones, etc.
Tesla is to battery expertise as Ford is to internal combustion engines. Ford was praised in its early years, and now Tesla is receiving high marks for the superior battery powered vehicles rolling off assembly lines. Battery production does not come without its difficulties as we have heard the reports of Tesla vehicles being completed under tents with some paint and parts defects. These challenges are being dealt with even as raw material shortages and price increases are coming into play as demand for electric vehicles goes exponential. Consumers are adopting electric vehicles at a rapid pace.
Where are we Going?
Electric vehicles and batteries will become more commonplace. It is as easy as that. The battery technology roadmap below shows that many Chinese companies see a future of higher energy density. In fact, Tesla China’s President recently said that the $25k Tesla will be built in China and sold across the globe.
The energy density of today’s Li-ion batteries have grown nearly four-fold from the original Sony batteries that were commercialized in 1991. Manufacturing scale and battery improvements have driven the costs down by about 90% since 2010 with the average cost being around ~$130 kWh.
Envisioning where batteries go from here requires extensive market research and strategic planning. Auto manufacturers are scaling technology, building Gigafactories, and meeting demand all while battery technology is improving. Competitors are chasing Tesla touting solid state, specialty anode materials, and unique cell designs that produce more powerful and longer lasting batteries. Will these new cell chemistries and designs emerge?
Frankly, I think they have a tall hill to climb. Major manufacturers such as LG and CATL have optimized wet lithium ion cell manufacturing and are building out plants world-wide. Safety is of utmost importance, so why would they want to take a risk on a new chemistry/technology for a 10%-20% improvement in range? It is known that cell manufacturers use a small amount of silicon in the anode to boost capacity. The focus over the next few years will probably be on maximizing Si in the anode to achieve roughly 300 Wh/kg energy density.
As I hinted above, supply chain constraints are coming and recent reports suggest that lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices will rise in 2021. The cathode is the primary driver of battery cost, so supply hiccups can have big impacts on production. The extraction and recycling processes are a primary focus for everyone, and a global effort will enable a slow, but dramatic shift for the transportation industry.
An Exciting Future
The Roaring 1920s evolved during the recovery from World War I, and some could argue it was due in part to more people having access to personal transportation (cars and buses). The battery boom in 2020 is spurring a revolutionary shift in the way that people perceive electric vehicles and renewable energies. As batteries displace internal combustion engines we can all look forward to a quieter and cleaner future. Move over “Roaring 20s”, the “Charged” 2020s are coming.
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